Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Market brief

• Up 3.0 pp over the past week (+16.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 46% on Oct 21, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 25 buys, 25 sells; the largest was $1.44K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before the end resolved YES (3,127 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 21 hr. (Oct 27, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 3,127 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% one day before resolution, 69.2% resolved YES. That is 4.1 points less often than their average price of 73.3% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
• Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.

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