Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Market brief

• Last 50 trades: 42 buys, 8 sells; the largest was $350 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (605 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 20 hr. (Oct 27, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 605 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?95 %▼ −1.0%
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?9 %▲ +0.0%
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86 %▲ +2.0%
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26 %▼ −3.0%
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?27 %▼ −2.5%
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?4 %▼ −0.4%

Keep exploring