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Updated 2 days ago

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Politics
Watch this market

23 %

chance

▼ −1.5%1h▼ −13.5%24h▼ −2.0%1W
Yes 23¢No 78¢

Market brief

  • Down 13.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 55% on Oct 21, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 27 buys, 23 sells; the largest was $2.01K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 26% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (117 cases).
  • Scheduled to end in 20 hr. (Oct 27, 2026).

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Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

8 outcomes
See all 8 outcomes

Total volume

$300K

24h vol.

$31.5K

1w vol.

$150.7K

1m vol.

$257.8K

Liquidity

$91K

Bid / Ask

22¢ / 23¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

25¢

Start date

Apr 1, 2026

End date

Oct 27, 2026

ends in 20 hr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 117 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% one day before resolution, 26.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 23.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
34¢$5
33¢$284
32¢$2,473
31¢$3,270
30¢$15,332
21¢$8
20¢$5,000
19¢$100
14¢$3,375
13¢$2,500
Asks (sell)Size
36¢$17
37¢$3,601
38¢$4,732
39¢$19,501
40¢$1,094
41¢$500
42¢$1,111
43¢$105
44¢$500
49¢$400

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 81%Sells 19%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 days agoBuy36¢1,088
2 days agoBuy35¢114
2 days agoSell33¢11
2 days agoSell33¢80
2 days agoBuy35¢68
2 days agoBuy36¢70
2 days agoBuy36¢5,600
2 days agoSell34¢49
2 days agoBuy35¢142
2 days agoBuy35¢267
2 days agoBuy34¢1,827
2 days agoBuy34¢118
2 days agoSell33¢15
2 days agoBuy35¢3
2 days agoBuy34¢206
2 days agoSell33¢10
2 days agoBuy35¢11
2 days agoBuy34¢20
2 days agoSell34¢23
2 days agoBuy36¢3
2 days agoBuy36¢28
2 days agoBuy33¢75
2 days agoBuy33¢10
2 days agoSell33¢305
2 days agoSell34¢150
2 days agoSell32¢10
2 days agoSell34¢10
2 days agoSell34¢10
2 days agoSell34¢10
2 days agoSell34¢74
2 days agoSell34¢30
2 days agoBuy35¢19
2 days agoBuy34¢1,471
2 days agoBuy34¢10
2 days agoBuy34¢6
2 days agoBuy34¢3
2 days agoSell33¢27
2 days agoBuy34¢100
2 days agoSell34¢9
2 days agoSell35¢1,500
2 days agoSell32¢67
2 days agoSell34¢89
2 days agoSell34¢178
2 days agoSell35¢21
2 days agoSell35¢150
2 days agoBuy37¢712
2 days agoBuy37¢6
2 days agoBuy36¢303
2 days agoBuy37¢135
3 days agoSell34¢5

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