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Updated 4 wk. ago
Will Dario Amodei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
7 %
chance
TIME Person of the Year 2026
28 outcomes- Zohran Mamdani28 %
- Mark Carney17 %
- Pope Leo XIV13 %
- Benjamin Netanyahu8 %
- Dario Amodei7 %
- Donald Trump7 %
- Artificial Intelligence6 %
- Elon Musk6 %
- Marco Rubio5 %
- Reid Wiseman5 %
- Sam Altman5 %
- Jeremy Hansen5 %
- Victor Glover5 %
- Mojtaba Khamenei4 %
- Christina Koch4 %
- Bad Bunny4 %
- Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4 %
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez4 %
- Péter Magyar4 %
- James Talarico3 %
- Shehbaz Sharif3 %
- Ali Khamenei3 %
- Jerome Powell3 %
- ChatGPT3 %
- Ali G2 %
- Alysa Liu1 %
- Bernie Sanders1 %
- Taylor Swift1 %
Total volume
$3.4K
24h vol.
$0.78
1w vol.
$62.48
1m vol.
$1.6K
Liquidity
$17.8K
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 8¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
May 26, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 5¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 400 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 400 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 84 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 84 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 60 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 60 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 80 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 78 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 70 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 70 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 19 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 13 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 83¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 81¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 82¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 83¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 84¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 15¢ | 15 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 6 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.