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Updated 4 wk. ago

Will Sam Altman be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

Other

5 %

chance

▲ +0.2%24h▲ +0.2%1W

Yes 5¢No 95¢

Total volume

$341.11

24h vol.

$50

1w vol.

$50

1m vol.

$91

Liquidity

$23.8K

Bid / Ask

5¢ / 6¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

4¢

Start date

May 26, 2026

End date

Dec 31, 2026

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 221 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 16.7% resolved YES. That is 7.1 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 5¢

Bids (buy)Size

2¢$7

2¢$10

0¢$141

0¢$215

0¢$300

0¢$86

Asks (sell)Size

7¢$100

10¢$250

11¢$50

14¢$1,411

15¢$666

24¢$800

64¢$300

65¢$3,000

66¢$1,750

70¢$2,479

Snapshot from cache

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Recent trades (14)

Buys 89%Sells 11%

Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
Time	Side	Price	Size
4 wk. ago	Buy	98¢	10
4 wk. ago	Buy	2¢	10
2 mo. ago	Buy	5¢	100
2 mo. ago	Buy	95¢	100
2 mo. ago	Sell	95¢	50
2 mo. ago	Buy	95¢	50
3 mo. ago	Buy	90¢	30
3 mo. ago	Buy	10¢	30
4 mo. ago	Sell	85¢	5
4 mo. ago	Buy	85¢	5
5 mo. ago	Buy	80¢	50
5 mo. ago	Buy	20¢	50
5 mo. ago	Buy	84¢	5
5 mo. ago	Buy	16¢	5

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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