Updated 2 mo. ago

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?
3 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 50 trades: 26 buys, 24 sells; the largest was $300 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (614 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Total volume
$10.2K
24h vol.
$57.391
Liquidity
$16.7K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$1.1K
1m vol.
$1.9K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 4¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
6¢
Start date
Jul 20, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 5¢ | 24 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 96¢ | 4 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 24 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 24 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 316 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 24 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 52 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 120 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 95¢ | 120 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 8 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 33 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 67 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 0 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 20 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 183 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 183 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 241 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 183 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 58 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 105 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 105 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 95¢ | 53 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 5¢ | 53 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 17 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 17 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 40 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 40 |
| 4 mo. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 200 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 200 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 1 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 1 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 94¢ | 7 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 6¢ | 7 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Netanyahu arrested by…?
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