Skip to content

← Politics odds

Updated 2 mo. ago

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?

PoliticsGeopoliticsCultureWorld

3 %

chance

▼ −0.3%24h▲ +0.8%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Market brief

  • Last 50 trades: 26 buys, 24 sells; the largest was $300 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (614 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

What's your number?

Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.

50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.

Result by email

Find out how it ends

One email when this market resolves. No account needed.

We send a confirmation link first. After the result email, we delete your address. Privacy

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

Request analysisPart of every plan · 7 days for $3

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$10.2K

24h vol.

$57.391

Liquidity

$16.7K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$1.1K

1m vol.

$1.9K

Bid / Ask

3¢ / 4¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

6¢

Start date

Jul 20, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
6¢$40
5¢$144
4¢$1,294
3¢$2,336
2¢$1,170
1¢$3,520
Asks (sell)Size
8¢$192
9¢$358
10¢$20
38¢$200
50¢$2,500
75¢$800
76¢$3,000
89¢$750
96¢$2,500

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 59%Sells 41%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoBuy93¢20
2 mo. agoBuy7¢20
2 mo. agoSell5¢24
2 mo. agoSell96¢4
2 mo. agoBuy5¢20
2 mo. agoSell6¢24
2 mo. agoBuy6¢24
2 mo. agoBuy95¢316
2 mo. agoBuy5¢24
2 mo. agoBuy5¢52
2 mo. agoBuy5¢120
2 mo. agoSell95¢120
2 mo. agoSell93¢8
2 mo. agoSell7¢8
2 mo. agoSell93¢8
2 mo. agoSell7¢8
2 mo. agoBuy94¢1
2 mo. agoBuy6¢1
2 mo. agoSell93¢100
2 mo. agoSell7¢33
2 mo. agoSell7¢67
2 mo. agoBuy95¢21
2 mo. agoBuy5¢1
2 mo. agoBuy5¢20
3 mo. agoBuy95¢20
3 mo. agoBuy5¢0
3 mo. agoBuy5¢20
3 mo. agoBuy95¢20
3 mo. agoBuy5¢20
3 mo. agoSell93¢183
3 mo. agoSell7¢183
3 mo. agoBuy6¢241
3 mo. agoBuy94¢183
3 mo. agoSell6¢58
3 mo. agoBuy95¢105
3 mo. agoBuy5¢105
3 mo. agoBuy95¢53
3 mo. agoBuy5¢53
4 mo. agoBuy6¢17
4 mo. agoSell6¢17
4 mo. agoSell94¢10
4 mo. agoSell6¢10
4 mo. agoSell94¢40
4 mo. agoSell6¢40
4 mo. agoBuy6¢200
4 mo. agoSell6¢200
4 mo. agoSell94¢1
4 mo. agoSell6¢1
4 mo. agoSell94¢7
4 mo. agoSell6¢7
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed; (ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event:
Netanyahu arrested by…?

Related markets

Open Politics markets from other events — closest to this one first.

Keep exploring