Updated 19 min. ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
93 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 13.0 pp over the past week (+1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 76% on Nov 8, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 43 buys, 7 sells; the largest was $4.79K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 87% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before the end resolved YES (688 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 23, 2026).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
◆ Your call
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The AI's estimate
The AI and the market agreesonar · analysed 4 hr. ago
Market was at 91% when this was analysed (+2 pp since).
From the daily AI research
The current 90.5% YES price is high but defensible: recent reporting says the Israel-Iran ceasefire held through November 15, and the contract excludes many types of escalation.[3][1] The principal risk is not ordinary regional tension but a single qualifying direct strike during the remaining week, plus ambiguity because no single resolution authority is named. The 87.2% historical hit rate for comparable markets argues against assuming the current price is certain; after weighing the recent holding period and narrow trigger against the remaining exposure and rule ambiguity, the estimate is 89%, a 1.5-point reduction from the market price rather than an upward deviation.
Two of the key facts
- The market rules define YES as no qualifying Israeli or Iranian military action through 11:59 PM IRST on November 22; the metadata end time is 2026-11-23T04:59:00Z. [1]
- A qualifying action is an Israeli or Iranian air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts the other country's terrestrial territory; airspace and maritime territory are excluded. [1]
Resolution risk: medium — read the rules before relying on the title.
Bull and bear case, the remaining facts and the full resolution analysis come with a plan.
Sources, key facts and what would change the call.
✦ AI assessment
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
7 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$850.1K
24h vol.
$129.3K
Liquidity
$67.8K
End date
Nov 23, 2026
ends in 1 wk.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProThe latest daily analysis in full: probability, bull and bear case, 6 key facts from 10 sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+There is a current smart-money reading on this market: how the wallets whose record holds up are positioned.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$585K
1m vol.
$850.1K
Bid / Ask
92¢ / 93¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
92¢
Start date
Oct 28, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 50 |
| 53 min. ago | Sell | 92¢ | 629 |
| 53 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 50 |
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 50 |
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 50 |
| 55 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 377 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 50 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 9 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 5,213 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 1,403 |
| 56 min. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 51 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 211 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 311 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 7 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 100 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 461 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 6 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 3 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 16 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 6 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 20 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 17 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 19 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 90¢ | 17 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 4 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
- Event:
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
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