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Updated 4 days ago
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
38 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 19.5 pp over the past week (−4.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 59% on Oct 26, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 26 buys, 24 sells; the largest was $5.71K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 46% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (108 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Jan 1, 2028).
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Total volume
$628.8K
24h vol.
$503.433
1w vol.
$78K
1m vol.
$94.1K
Liquidity
$41.5K
Bid / Ask
37¢ / 38¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
38¢
Start date
Jan 4, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 108 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 46.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 47.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 44¢ | 48 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 46¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 47¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 47¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 45¢ | 71 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 49¢ | 418 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 49¢ | 26 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 50¢ | 211 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 49¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 18 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 48 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 53¢ | 12 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 51¢ | 13 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 51¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 11,900 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 52¢ | 13 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 51¢ | 1,942 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 51¢ | 150 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 51¢ | 7,800 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 51¢ | 2,500 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 51¢ | 11,400 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 51¢ | 10 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 49¢ | 1 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 50¢ | 79 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 1,240 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 56¢ | 31 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 56¢ | 21 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 55¢ | 83 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 55¢ | 16 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 55¢ | 11,900 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 55¢ | 9,800 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 55¢ | 2,500 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 55¢ | 11,400 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 54¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 4 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 80 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 2 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 4 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 53 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 1 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 80 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 53¢ | 86 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 54¢ | 10 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 58¢ | 4 |
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