Updated 9 min. ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
46 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 33.0 pp over the past week (−6.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 79% on Nov 4, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $3K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 48% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (126 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 3 mo. (Jan 28, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
◆ Your call
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The AI's estimate
The AI and the market agreesonar · analysed 16 hr. ago
Market was at 52% when this was analysed (−6 pp since).
From the daily AI research
The market is currently near even odds at 51.5% YES, but the 21-point seven-day decline and heavily sell-dominated recent trading indicate that traders have recently repriced toward a January change. The strongest available directional evidence is a November 2026 U.S.
Read the full summary
Bank forecast for additional tightening by early 2027, offset by the lack of official January-specific guidance and the long time remaining before the scheduled January 26–27 meeting. I estimate YES at 48%, a 3.5-point move below the market price, primarily because of the recent repricing and the only available forward-looking forecast; confidence is low because the forecast is not official, no reliable historical no-change base-rate series was available, and the rules contain unresolved postponement or cancellation edge cases.
Two of the key facts
- The official Federal Reserve calendar lists the January 2027 FOMC meeting for January 26–27, and the Fed’s tentative-schedule announcement says regularly scheduled policy statements are released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the second meeting day. [1][4]
- A November 2026 U.S. Bank outlook expects two additional 25-basis-point Fed increases by early 2027, but it is private-sector commentary rather than official FOMC guidance and does not specifically predict the January meeting. [10]
Resolution risk: medium — read the rules before relying on the title.
Bull and bear case, the remaining facts and the full resolution analysis come with a plan.
Sources, key facts and what would change the call.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Fed Decision in January?
5 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$655.1K
24h vol.
$141.7K
Liquidity
$169.3K
End date
Jan 28, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProThe latest daily analysis in full: probability, bull and bear case, 4 key facts from 10 sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$352K
1m vol.
$573.1K
Bid / Ask
45¢ / 46¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
46¢
Start date
Jul 30, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 min. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 27 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 43 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 55 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 75 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 91 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 2,076 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 91 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 4,537 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 54 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 91 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 5 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 11 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 5 |
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 2,275 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 958 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 3,979 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 2,205 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 22 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 8 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 207 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 31 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 69 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 5 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 407 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 427 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 2 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 5,573 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 2,770 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 5,671 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 5 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 6 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 6 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 5,520 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 5,614 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 5,321 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 234 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 6 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 30 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 12 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 583 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 500 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 911 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 1,463 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 20 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 41 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 41 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 20 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 32 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 4 |
Rules & resolution
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
- Event:
- Fed Decision in January?
- Resolution source:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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