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Updated 1 mo. ago

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

Politics
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1 %

chance

▼ −0.5%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.8%1W
Yes 1¢No 99¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

6 outcomes

Total volume

$156.3K

24h vol.

$3K

1w vol.

$11.9K

1m vol.

$126.2K

Liquidity

$57.3K

Bid / Ask

1¢ / 1¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

1¢

Start date

Sep 15, 2026

End date

Nov 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
14¢$4,618
13¢$5,463
12¢$20,642
11¢$6,552
10¢$51
7¢$286
6¢$333
5¢$400
4¢$1,450
3¢$1,800
Asks (sell)Size
16¢$598
17¢$1,164
18¢$391
19¢$613
20¢$500
21¢$16
33¢$338
34¢$1,500
35¢$270
36¢$1,756

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✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 61%Sells 39%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy86¢1,163
1 mo. agoSell86¢1,163
1 mo. agoBuy86¢150
1 mo. agoSell86¢150
1 mo. agoBuy86¢3,491
1 mo. agoSell86¢2,957
1 mo. agoSell86¢115
1 mo. agoBuy14¢219
1 mo. agoBuy15¢200
1 mo. agoBuy16¢50
1 mo. agoSell16¢50
1 mo. agoBuy16¢7
1 mo. agoBuy84¢7
1 mo. agoBuy15¢726
1 mo. agoBuy85¢18
1 mo. agoBuy85¢100
1 mo. agoSell15¢469
1 mo. agoSell15¢16
1 mo. agoBuy85¢123
1 mo. agoBuy86¢29
1 mo. agoBuy14¢29
1 mo. agoBuy15¢803
1 mo. agoBuy85¢27
1 mo. agoBuy85¢776
1 mo. agoBuy15¢30
1 mo. agoBuy85¢30
1 mo. agoBuy15¢153
1 mo. agoBuy85¢153
1 mo. agoBuy15¢352
1 mo. agoBuy85¢41
1 mo. agoSell15¢16
1 mo. agoSell15¢295
1 mo. agoBuy15¢7
1 mo. agoSell15¢7
1 mo. agoSell14¢35
1 mo. agoBuy14¢35
1 mo. agoBuy86¢10
1 mo. agoBuy14¢10
1 mo. agoBuy15¢183
1 mo. agoSell15¢183
1 mo. agoSell85¢8
1 mo. agoSell15¢8
1 mo. agoBuy86¢5
1 mo. agoBuy14¢5
1 mo. agoBuy15¢400
1 mo. agoSell15¢400
1 mo. agoBuy86¢1
1 mo. agoBuy14¢1
1 mo. agoSell14¢40
1 mo. agoSell86¢40

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