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Updated 2 wk. ago

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

Politics
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18 %

chance

▼ −2.5%1h▼ −1.5%24h▼ −2.5%1W
Yes 18¢No 82¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

6 outcomes

Total volume

$4K

24h vol.

$733.96

1w vol.

$2.3K

1m vol.

$4K

Liquidity

$38.3K

Bid / Ask

17¢ / 19¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

18¢

Start date

Oct 5, 2026

End date

Apr 1, 2027

ends in 5 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 36¢
Bids (buy)Size
5¢$60
3¢$58
2¢$252
1¢$419
Asks (sell)Size
41¢$16
42¢$60
45¢$60
84¢$300
98¢$36
99¢$420

Snapshot from cache

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Recent trades (14)

Buys 94%Sells 6%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy78¢320
2 wk. agoBuy3¢16
2 wk. agoBuy20¢61
2 wk. agoBuy22¢60
2 wk. agoBuy23¢61
2 wk. agoBuy24¢61
2 wk. agoSell76¢60
2 wk. agoBuy25¢60
2 wk. agoBuy75¢60
2 wk. agoBuy22¢120
2 wk. agoBuy78¢60
2 wk. agoBuy78¢60
2 wk. agoBuy21¢20
2 wk. agoBuy79¢20

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.