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Updated 6 days ago
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
6 %
chance
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
6 outcomesTotal volume
$2.3M
24h vol.
$11.7K
1w vol.
$73K
1m vol.
$770.6K
Liquidity
$77.4K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 6¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Nov 5, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 761 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 761 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 1,010 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 1,010 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 2 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 2 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 5¢ | 298 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 183 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 95 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 94¢ | 14 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 14 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 17 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 17 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 54 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 95¢ | 54 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 1,923 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 500 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 94¢ | 798 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 94¢ | 26 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 94¢ | 69 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 7¢ | 15 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 93¢ | 171 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 93¢ | 44 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 93¢ | 100 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 93¢ | 200 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 6¢ | 334 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 334 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 92¢ | 248 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 92¢ | 248 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 92¢ | 251 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 92¢ | 22 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 29 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 92¢ | 200 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 9¢ | 11 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 9¢ | 11 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 91¢ | 645 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 9¢ | 645 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 92¢ | 10 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 10 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 91¢ | 217 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 9¢ | 116 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 91 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 10 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 8¢ | 330 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 92¢ | 217 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 60 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 8¢ | 10 |
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