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Updated 2 wk. ago

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

Politics
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42 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −4.0%1W
Yes 42¢No 59¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

6 outcomes

Total volume

$8.3K

24h vol.

$164

1w vol.

$5.5K

1m vol.

$8.3K

Liquidity

$31.1K

Bid / Ask

41¢ / 42¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

41¢

Start date

Oct 5, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
31¢$342
30¢$232
29¢$752
28¢$187
27¢$190
26¢$138
25¢$146
24¢$254
23¢$163
22¢$437
Asks (sell)Size
32¢$468
33¢$254
34¢$60
37¢$60
50¢$100
78¢$90
79¢$400
82¢$68
83¢$300
84¢$3,000

Snapshot from cache

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Recent trades (11)

Buys 94%Sells 6%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy32¢3
2 wk. agoBuy68¢3
2 wk. agoBuy31¢10
2 wk. agoBuy68¢5
2 wk. agoBuy69¢5
2 wk. agoBuy29¢3
2 wk. agoBuy71¢3
2 wk. agoSell20¢1
2 wk. agoBuy20¢1
2 wk. agoSell69¢1
2 wk. agoBuy69¢1

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