← Dashboard · Tech
Updated 3 wk. ago
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?
16 %
chance
Total volume
$4.3K
24h vol.
$775.505
1w vol.
$3.8K
1m vol.
$4.3K
Liquidity
$3.9K
Bid / Ask
15¢ / 16¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
18¢
Start date
Sep 29, 2026
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 3,440 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 30.3% resolved YES. That is 4.7 points more often than their average price of 25.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 5¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (4)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 154 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 50 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 83 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 21 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Tech markets from other events.