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Updated 4 days ago
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
100 %
chance
How surprising was this result?
Seven days before the end, the market priced YES at 94%.
Among 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced in the same range, a result like this one happened 88% of the time — the expected outcome.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
5 outcomesTotal volume
$955.1K
24h vol.
$181.1K
1w vol.
$866.6K
1m vol.
$955.1K
Liquidity
$76.8K
Bid / Ask
100¢ / 100¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
100¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Oct 16, 2026
trading closed
Orderbook
No orders
Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 2,166 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 2,166 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 7,834 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 7,834 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 560 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 94 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 466 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 3,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 3,000 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12,359 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10,000 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 2,354 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 283 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 283 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 0 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6,621 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 6,561 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 50 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,084 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 1,084 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 875 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 375 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 500 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 2,500 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 2,500 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 100¢ | 100 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 100 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 0¢ | 95 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 95 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 100¢ | 8 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5 |
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