← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 14 min. ago
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
6 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 78.6 pp over the past week (−87.6 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 96% on Nov 2, 2026.
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before the end resolved YES (113 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 4, 2026).
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Total volume
$2M
24h vol.
$139.6K
1w vol.
$764.6K
1m vol.
$2M
Liquidity
$18.5K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 7¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Oct 9, 2026
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 1 day
How reliable is this price range?
Of 113 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% one day before resolution, 12.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. With this many cases, the difference could still be chance.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 0¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x613613192c69d90cee89758c260a019368fc1f4a596b4d300c39b6235d2b643f&limit=50&takerOnly=true
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