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Updated 2 hr. ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?

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73 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +4.5%24h
Yes 73¢No 27¢

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

9 outcomes

Total volume

$36.3K

24h vol.

$23.6K

1w vol.

$36.3K

1m vol.

$36.3K

Liquidity

$35.3K

Bid / Ask

72¢ / 74¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

75¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Nov 9, 2026

ends in 3 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,758 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.5 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
72¢$610
71¢$593
70¢$711
69¢$11
68¢$180
67¢$800
65¢$50
64¢$61
63¢$100
62¢$200
Asks (sell)Size
74¢$410
75¢$33
76¢$64
77¢$38
78¢$62
79¢$65
80¢$29
81¢$139
82¢$572
83¢$2,772

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 61%Sells 39%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 hr. agoBuy75¢54
2 hr. agoBuy25¢39
2 hr. agoBuy25¢10
2 hr. agoBuy26¢5
2 hr. agoSell27¢300
2 hr. agoBuy26¢51
2 hr. agoBuy26¢36
2 hr. agoBuy27¢213
3 hr. agoSell72¢1
3 hr. agoSell28¢1
4 hr. agoBuy73¢1
4 hr. agoBuy27¢1
5 hr. agoBuy29¢3
5 hr. agoBuy71¢3
6 hr. agoBuy73¢8
6 hr. agoBuy27¢8
8 hr. agoSell72¢27
8 hr. agoSell28¢27
8 hr. agoBuy73¢27
8 hr. agoBuy27¢16
8 hr. agoBuy27¢11
9 hr. agoBuy29¢3,000
9 hr. agoBuy71¢1,628
9 hr. agoSell29¢162
9 hr. agoSell29¢1,000
9 hr. agoSell29¢10
9 hr. agoSell28¢200
10 hr. agoBuy73¢10
10 hr. agoBuy27¢10
10 hr. agoBuy73¢14
10 hr. agoBuy27¢14
11 hr. agoBuy28¢104
11 hr. agoSell28¢54
11 hr. agoBuy72¢50
12 hr. agoSell72¢0
12 hr. agoSell28¢0
12 hr. agoSell72¢0
12 hr. agoSell28¢0
12 hr. agoSell73¢1,441
12 hr. agoSell27¢200
12 hr. agoSell27¢174
12 hr. agoSell27¢221
12 hr. agoBuy73¢288
12 hr. agoBuy73¢288
12 hr. agoBuy73¢270
12 hr. agoSell26¢600
12 hr. agoBuy26¢600
12 hr. agoBuy27¢18
12 hr. agoBuy73¢18
12 hr. agoBuy74¢1

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