Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
8 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 19 trades: 17 buys, 2 sells; the largest was $207 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 8% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (409 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Apr 1, 2028).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
17 outcomes- Jimmy Lai11 %
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms10 %
- Committee to Protect Journalists10 %
- Yulia Navalnaya10 %
- Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya8 %
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy8 %
- Pope Leo XIV8 %
- Donald Trump8 %
- UNRWA8 %
- Melania Trump7 %
- International Criminal Court7 %
- Julian Assange5 %
- International Court of Justice4 %
- Doctors Without Borders3 %
- António Guterres3 %
- Elon Musk3 %
- Greta Thunberg2 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$5.3K
24h vol.
$33.5
Liquidity
$35.7K
End date
Apr 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$83.5
1m vol.
$5.3K
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 8¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
8¢
Start date
Oct 12, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (19)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 140 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 110 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 17 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 17 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 223 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 23 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 7¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 3 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 3 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 97¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
- Event:
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
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