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Updated 3 min. ago

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Politics
Watch this market

68 %

chance

▼ −0.5%1h▼ −1.0%24h▲ +3.0%1W
Yes 68¢No 32¢

Market brief

  • Up 3.0 pp over the past week (−1.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 64% on Oct 19, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $1K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (1,814 cases).
  • Scheduled to end in 2 wk. (Nov 4, 2026).

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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$5.2M

24h vol.

$663.5K

1w vol.

$1.2M

1m vol.

$2.2M

Liquidity

$1.7M

Bid / Ask

67¢ / 68¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

69¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 4, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,814 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.7% resolved YES. That is 4.4 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

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  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
  • Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
67¢$37,355
66¢$621,611
65¢$1,078,287
64¢$28,407
63¢$166,799
62¢$34,048
61¢$1,916
60¢$2,719
59¢$531
58¢$8
Asks (sell)Size
68¢$2,342
69¢$67,214
70¢$65,225
71¢$22,828
72¢$356,245
73¢$6,046
74¢$19,221
75¢$407,508
76¢$5,510
77¢$20

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 31%Sells 69%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
14 min. agoSell67¢600
33 min. agoBuy69¢9
36 min. agoBuy69¢69
49 min. agoBuy69¢1,449
59 min. agoBuy69¢22
1 hr. agoBuy69¢7
1 hr. agoBuy68¢293
1 hr. agoBuy68¢1
1 hr. agoSell67¢15
1 hr. agoBuy68¢4
1 hr. agoBuy68¢2
2 hr. agoBuy68¢26
2 hr. agoSell67¢30
2 hr. agoBuy68¢147
2 hr. agoBuy68¢84
2 hr. agoBuy68¢294
2 hr. agoBuy68¢4
2 hr. agoBuy68¢23
2 hr. agoSell67¢6
2 hr. agoBuy69¢38
2 hr. agoSell68¢129
2 hr. agoSell68¢156
2 hr. agoSell68¢104
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢200
2 hr. agoSell68¢104
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢156
2 hr. agoSell68¢104
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢200
2 hr. agoSell68¢117
2 hr. agoSell68¢182
2 hr. agoSell68¢52
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢156
2 hr. agoSell68¢200
2 hr. agoSell68¢104
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢130
2 hr. agoSell68¢156
2 hr. agoSell68¢200
2 hr. agoSell68¢104
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢209
2 hr. agoSell68¢137
2 hr. agoSell68¢144

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