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Updated 38 min. ago

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?

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37 %

chance

▼ −7.0%1h▼ −9.0%24h
Yes 37¢No 64¢

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

5 outcomes

Total volume

$28K

24h vol.

$7.2K

1w vol.

$28K

1m vol.

$28K

Liquidity

$1.5K

Bid / Ask

34¢ / 39¢

Spread 5¢

Last trade

45¢

Start date

Oct 14, 2026

End date

Oct 22, 2026

ends in 3 days

How reliable is this price range?

Of 10,210 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% one day before resolution, 50.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 5¢
Bids (buy)Size
34¢$136
33¢$504
26¢$70
25¢$50
18¢$10
17¢$344
16¢$20
15¢$100
9¢$83
8¢$415
Asks (sell)Size
39¢$165
40¢$182
41¢$430
44¢$88
45¢$391
46¢$6
47¢$220
48¢$100
50¢$5
54¢$295

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 80%Sells 20%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
58 min. agoBuy62¢120
58 min. agoBuy38¢120
58 min. agoBuy59¢1,351
58 min. agoSell60¢200
58 min. agoSell60¢50
58 min. agoBuy41¢50
58 min. agoBuy41¢162
58 min. agoBuy42¢75
58 min. agoSell58¢78
58 min. agoSell58¢736
1 hr. agoSell56¢20
1 hr. agoSell44¢20
1 hr. agoBuy42¢1,165
1 hr. agoBuy58¢892
1 hr. agoBuy58¢78
1 hr. agoBuy58¢50
1 hr. agoSell41¢50
1 hr. agoBuy59¢75
1 hr. agoBuy59¢20
1 hr. agoBuy45¢20
1 hr. agoBuy55¢15
1 hr. agoBuy56¢5
1 hr. agoBuy45¢115
1 hr. agoBuy55¢95
1 hr. agoBuy56¢10
1 hr. agoBuy56¢10
1 hr. agoBuy45¢50
1 hr. agoBuy55¢50
1 hr. agoBuy44¢135
1 hr. agoBuy56¢115
1 hr. agoBuy56¢20
2 hr. agoBuy59¢20
2 hr. agoBuy41¢20
2 hr. agoBuy59¢7
2 hr. agoBuy41¢7
3 hr. agoBuy59¢2
3 hr. agoBuy41¢2
5 hr. agoBuy43¢25
5 hr. agoBuy57¢25
5 hr. agoBuy43¢20
5 hr. agoBuy57¢5
5 hr. agoSell43¢16
5 hr. agoBuy43¢5
5 hr. agoSell43¢5
6 hr. agoSell38¢44
6 hr. agoBuy38¢44
6 hr. agoSell39¢28
6 hr. agoBuy39¢20
6 hr. agoBuy39¢8
6 hr. agoBuy61¢2

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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