← Dashboard · Sports
Updated 4 days ago
Will Harry Kane finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 23 trades: 21 buys, 2 sells; the largest was $74 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (293 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place
30 outcomes- Lamine Yamal73 %
- Kylian Mbappé17 %
- Lionel Messi5 %
- Rodri4 %
- Harry Kane4 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2 %
- Michael Olise1 %
- Ousmane Dembélé1 %
- Fabian Ruiz0 %
- Sadio Mané0 %
- Erling Haaland0 %
- Jude Bellingham0 %
- Lautaro Martinez0 %
- Pau Cubarsi0 %
- Achraf Hakimi0 %
- Dayot Upamecano0 %
- William Saliba0 %
- Nuno Mendes0 %
- Marc Cucurella0 %
- Vitinha0 %
- Ferran Torres0 %
- Willian Pacho0 %
- Gabriel Magalhães0 %
- Bruno Fernandes0 %
- Marquinhos0 %
- Vinícius Júnior0 %
- Luis Diaz0 %
- João Neves0 %
- Julián Quiñones0 %
- Declan Rice0 %
Total volume
$8K
24h vol.
$1.6K
1w vol.
$8K
1m vol.
$8K
Liquidity
$9.8K
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 5¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
5¢
Start date
Oct 19, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 293 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 8¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (23)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 44 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 34 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 4 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 4 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 75 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 75 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 18 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 18 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 5 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 20 |
| 4 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 20 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Sports markets from other events.
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −81.5%
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −39.5%
- LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −65.5%
- Minnesota vs Orlando — Minnesota78 %▲ +23.0%
- Game 1: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee — Milwaukee63 %▲ +0.0%
- LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage0 %▼ −71.5%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.