Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place odds
Live implied probabilities across 30 outcomes · $185.5K traded · updated 4 hr. ago
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Lamine Yamal leads at 73 % · biggest 24h move: Kylian Mbappé +4.0 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Lamine Yamal73 %▲ +0.5%$94K
- 2Kylian Mbappé17 %▲ +4.0%$20.1K
- 3Lionel Messi5 %▼ −3.8%$8.8K
- 4Rodri4 %▼ −2.6%$7.1K
- 5Harry Kane4 %▼ −0.1%$8K
- 6Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2 %▼ −0.4%$7.8K
- 7Michael Olise1 %▲ +0.9%$7.2K
- 8Ousmane Dembélé1 %▲ +0.3%$8.7K
- 9Fabian Ruiz0 %▼ −0.1%$5K
- 10Sadio Mané0 %—$4.7K
- 11Erling Haaland0 %▲ +0.1%$4.1K
- 12Jude Bellingham0 %—$1.7K
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Lautaro Martinez0 %—$1.7K
- 14Pau Cubarsi0 %—$50
- 15Vinícius Júnior0 %—$2K
- 16Declan Rice0 %—$1.8K
- 17Vitinha0 %—$2.1K
- 18Achraf Hakimi0 %—$50
- 19Bruno Fernandes0 %—$50
- 20Luis Diaz0 %—$50
- 21Marc Cucurella0 %—$50
- 22Gabriel Magalhães0 %—$60
- 23Marquinhos0 %—$50
- 24Nuno Mendes0 %—$50
- 25João Neves0 %—$50
- 26Willian Pacho0 %—$50
- 27Julián Quiñones0 %—$50
- 28William Saliba0 %—$50
- 29Ferran Torres0 %—$60
- 30Dayot Upamecano0 %—$50
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place?
- Lamine Yamal is the current favourite at 73 %, ahead of 29 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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