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Updated 2 days ago

Will Kylian Mbappé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Kylian Mbappé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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17 %

chance

▲ +1.5%1h▲ +4.0%24h
Yes 17¢No 84¢

Market brief

  • Up 4.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 28% on Oct 19, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $680 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 31% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,990 cases).
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

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Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place

30 outcomes
See all 30 outcomes

Total volume

$20.1K

24h vol.

$3.7K

1w vol.

$20.1K

1m vol.

$20.1K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

15¢ / 18¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Oct 19, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 2,990 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 31.1% resolved YES. That is 5.1 points more often than their average price of 26.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
16¢$77
15¢$1,015
14¢$258
13¢$2,000
12¢$7,939
9¢$560
8¢$484
7¢$286
6¢$343
5¢$400
Asks (sell)Size
18¢$1,787
19¢$350
20¢$50
21¢$183
22¢$1,033
23¢$816
24¢$261
25¢$681
26¢$452
27¢$788

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 32%Sells 68%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 days agoBuy18¢52
2 days agoBuy17¢61
2 days agoBuy18¢77
2 days agoBuy18¢200
2 days agoSell17¢32
2 days agoBuy18¢100
2 days agoSell17¢6
2 days agoSell17¢8
2 days agoSell17¢20
2 days agoSell17¢12
2 days agoSell17¢13
2 days agoSell17¢12
2 days agoBuy17¢20
2 days agoSell16¢8
2 days agoSell16¢5
2 days agoSell16¢30
2 days agoBuy17¢38
2 days agoSell16¢18
2 days agoSell16¢20
2 days agoSell16¢10
2 days agoBuy16¢10
2 days agoSell17¢10
2 days agoSell17¢20
2 days agoBuy17¢464
2 days agoSell17¢7
2 days agoSell15¢1,300
2 days agoSell15¢76
2 days agoSell15¢29
2 days agoBuy18¢47
2 days agoSell15¢50
2 days agoSell15¢89
2 days agoSell15¢40
2 days agoSell17¢45
2 days agoSell19¢45
2 days agoSell19¢500
2 days agoSell19¢10
2 days agoSell19¢10
2 days agoSell19¢10
2 days agoSell19¢28
2 days agoSell19¢840
2 days agoSell19¢20
2 days agoSell19¢20
2 days agoSell19¢40
2 days agoSell19¢20
2 days agoBuy19¢97
2 days agoBuy20¢22
2 days agoBuy19¢180
3 days agoBuy21¢16
3 days agoBuy20¢17
3 days agoBuy16¢200

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