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Updated 23 min. ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?

PoliticsEconomy

36 %

chance

▲ +1.5%1h▼ −8.5%24h▼ −12.0%1W
Yes 36¢No 65¢

Market brief

  • Down 12.0 pp over the past week (−8.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 61% on Nov 6, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $1.2K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 48% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (126 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 4 mo. (Mar 18, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$44.4K

24h vol.

$7.9K

Liquidity

$63.4K

End date

Mar 18, 2027

ends in 4 mo.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$23.7K

1m vol.

$44.4K

Bid / Ask

35¢ / 36¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

35¢

Start date

Oct 27, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
35¢$47
34¢$885
33¢$84
32¢$832
31¢$209
30¢$700
26¢$300
25¢$500
23¢$15
20¢$1,000
Asks (sell)Size
36¢$189
37¢$339
38¢$487
39¢$427
40¢$309
41¢$885
42¢$1,023
43¢$782
44¢$1,307
45¢$592

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 9%Sells 91%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
27 min. agoBuy36¢0
2 hr. agoBuy35¢19
2 hr. agoSell34¢155
3 hr. agoBuy32¢298
3 hr. agoBuy33¢26
4 hr. agoBuy32¢30
4 hr. agoBuy32¢5
5 hr. agoBuy32¢43
5 hr. agoBuy32¢63
5 hr. agoSell31¢11
6 hr. agoSell31¢1
6 hr. agoSell31¢5
6 hr. agoBuy35¢90
6 hr. agoSell35¢81
6 hr. agoBuy36¢14
6 hr. agoBuy36¢20
6 hr. agoBuy36¢36
6 hr. agoSell36¢88
6 hr. agoSell37¢26
6 hr. agoBuy39¢60
6 hr. agoBuy40¢21
6 hr. agoSell38¢19
6 hr. agoSell40¢1,432
6 hr. agoSell38¢21
6 hr. agoSell40¢101
6 hr. agoSell40¢25
6 hr. agoSell40¢80
6 hr. agoSell40¢20
6 hr. agoSell40¢32
6 hr. agoSell40¢83
6 hr. agoSell40¢875
6 hr. agoSell40¢5
6 hr. agoSell40¢970
6 hr. agoSell40¢215
6 hr. agoSell40¢125
6 hr. agoSell40¢2,000
7 hr. agoBuy41¢5
12 hr. agoBuy41¢3
21 hr. agoSell40¢5
21 hr. agoSell40¢427
21 hr. agoSell40¢5
21 hr. agoSell40¢9
21 hr. agoSell40¢5
21 hr. agoSell40¢16
21 hr. agoSell40¢5
23 hr. agoSell40¢5
23 hr. agoSell41¢4
23 hr. agoSell40¢50
23 hr. agoSell40¢83
23 hr. agoSell41¢70
Rules & resolution

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event:
Fed Decision in March?
Note:
Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).

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