Updated 23 min. ago

Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m?
56 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 23.0 pp over the past week (+6.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 34% on Nov 5, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 47 buys, 3 sells; the largest was $2.61K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 37% of Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (130 cases). That is less often than their average price of 46% implied — prices in this range have run high.
- Scheduled to end in 1 mo. (Dec 20, 2026).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office
6 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$59.5K
24h vol.
$18.3K
Liquidity
$14.9K
End date
Dec 20, 2026
ends in 1 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$56.8K
1m vol.
$59.5K
Bid / Ask
55¢ / 58¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
59¢
Start date
Oct 30, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 min. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 11 |
| 25 min. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 10 |
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 14 |
| 29 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 7 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 11 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 11 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 1 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 19 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 2 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 5 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 45 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 6 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 0 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 1,693 |
| 33 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 5 |
| 37 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 164 |
| 42 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 70 |
| 49 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 61 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 18 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 9 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 43 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 160 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 12 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 18 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 988 |
| 52 min. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 12 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 5 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 53¢ | 4 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 24 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 211 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 2 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 0 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 3 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 1 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 0 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 53¢ | 0 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 53¢ | 11 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 51¢ | 306 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 1,420 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 8 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 18 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 32 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 51¢ | 5,168 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 6 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 7 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 31 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 0 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page. If neither source has a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If "Avengers: Doomsday" is not released by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
- Event:
- "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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