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Updated 23 min. ago

Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m?

Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m?

Culture

56 %

chance

▲ +4.0%1h▲ +6.5%24h▲ +23.0%1W
Yes 56¢No 44¢

Market brief

  • Up 23.0 pp over the past week (+6.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 34% on Nov 5, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 47 buys, 3 sells; the largest was $2.61K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 37% of Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (130 cases). That is less often than their average price of 46% implied — prices in this range have run high.
  • Scheduled to end in 1 mo. (Dec 20, 2026).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

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50%
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"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office

6 outcomes
See all 6 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$59.5K

24h vol.

$18.3K

Liquidity

$14.9K

End date

Dec 20, 2026

ends in 1 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$56.8K

1m vol.

$59.5K

Bid / Ask

55¢ / 58¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

59¢

Start date

Oct 30, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 3¢
Bids (buy)Size
57¢$103
55¢$705
54¢$97
53¢$106
51¢$93
49¢$20
48¢$2,000
46¢$50
45¢$81
38¢$20
Asks (sell)Size
60¢$914
61¢$1,123
62¢$365
63¢$1,030
64¢$230
67¢$100
68¢$940
69¢$700
76¢$400
77¢$20

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 84%Sells 16%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
25 min. agoBuy60¢11
25 min. agoBuy60¢10
28 min. agoBuy59¢14
29 min. agoBuy59¢7
30 min. agoBuy60¢11
30 min. agoBuy60¢11
30 min. agoBuy59¢1
30 min. agoBuy59¢19
30 min. agoBuy59¢2
30 min. agoBuy59¢5
30 min. agoBuy59¢45
30 min. agoBuy59¢6
30 min. agoBuy59¢0
30 min. agoBuy59¢1,693
33 min. agoBuy56¢5
37 min. agoBuy56¢164
42 min. agoBuy56¢70
49 min. agoBuy56¢61
52 min. agoBuy57¢18
52 min. agoBuy57¢9
52 min. agoBuy56¢43
52 min. agoBuy56¢160
52 min. agoBuy56¢12
52 min. agoBuy56¢18
52 min. agoBuy55¢988
52 min. agoBuy56¢12
1 hr. agoSell52¢5
1 hr. agoBuy53¢4
2 hr. agoBuy54¢24
2 hr. agoBuy52¢211
3 hr. agoBuy52¢5
3 hr. agoBuy52¢2
3 hr. agoBuy52¢2
3 hr. agoBuy52¢0
3 hr. agoBuy52¢3
3 hr. agoBuy52¢1
3 hr. agoBuy52¢1
3 hr. agoBuy52¢0
3 hr. agoBuy53¢0
3 hr. agoBuy53¢11
3 hr. agoSell51¢306
3 hr. agoSell52¢1,420
3 hr. agoBuy52¢8
4 hr. agoBuy54¢18
4 hr. agoBuy52¢32
5 hr. agoBuy51¢5,168
7 hr. agoBuy46¢6
7 hr. agoBuy46¢7
7 hr. agoBuy45¢31
7 hr. agoBuy45¢0
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" will gross domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20). This market will resolve as soon as a final (i.e., not studio estimates) opening weekend figure is available, and no later than January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the "Box Office" tab of this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. If The Numbers does not have a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the "Weekend" figure for the movie's first weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page. If neither source has a final figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the figure The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the figure Box Office Mojo reports at that time. If neither source reports any figure by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If "Avengers: Doomsday" is not released by January 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve according to the figure for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Event:
"Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office
Note:
Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).

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