← Dashboard · Culture
Updated 37 min. ago
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
44 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 3.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 51% on Oct 22, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 22 buys, 28 sells; the largest was $3.18K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 35% of Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (115 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 3 mo. (Feb 1, 2027).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
4 outcomes- Avengers: Doomsday53 %
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day44 %
- Dune: Messiah0 %
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping0 %
Total volume
$323.9K
24h vol.
$13.3K
1w vol.
$30.9K
1m vol.
$106.9K
Liquidity
$23.3K
Bid / Ask
43¢ / 45¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
43¢
Start date
Nov 12, 2025
End date
Feb 1, 2027
ends in 3 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 115 resolved Polymarket Culture markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 34.8% resolved YES. That is 10.6 points less often than their average price of 45.4% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 hr. ago | Sell | 43¢ | 7 |
| 8 hr. ago | Sell | 43¢ | 10 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 10 |
| 9 hr. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 5 |
| 11 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 5 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 65 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 50 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 35 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 1 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 1,000 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 49 |
| 13 hr. ago | Buy | 42¢ | 600 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 40¢ | 1,200 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 40¢ | 128 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 39¢ | 579 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 6 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 55 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 37 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 40¢ | 15 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 16 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 42¢ | 19 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 43¢ | 100 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 16 |
| 14 hr. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 98 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 46¢ | 6,886 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 260 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 316 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 126 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 50 |
| 15 hr. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 450 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 1,020 |
| 17 hr. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 2 |
| 19 hr. ago | Buy | 47¢ | 68 |
| 20 hr. ago | Buy | 47¢ | 32 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 46¢ | 36 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 46¢ | 36 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 47¢ | 136 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 47¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 49¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 49¢ | 18 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 48¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 48¢ | 2 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 47¢ | 260 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 44¢ | 25 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 48¢ | 5 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 47¢ | 10 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 48¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 49¢ | 50 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 49¢ | 5 |
| 2 days ago | Buy | 50¢ | 10 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Culture markets from other events.
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?77 %▲ +1.4%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?5 %▲ +0.9%
- Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?0 %▼ −0.2%
- Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?74 %▲ +3.0%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?2 %▼ −29.2%
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?1 %▼ −0.1%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.