Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?

Market brief

• Down 27.7 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 49% on Oct 20, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $253 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before the end resolved YES (584 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 17 hr. (Oct 24, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 584 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% one day before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 0.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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