Updated 9 min. ago

Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?
9 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 50 trades: 30 buys, 20 sells; the largest was $1.19K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (1,777 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Total volume
$62.6K
24h vol.
$62.6K
Liquidity
$45.8K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
Bid / Ask
8¢ / 10¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
10¢
Start date
Nov 12, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 min. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 2 |
| 24 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 1,031 |
| 25 min. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 2 |
| 25 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 496 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 32 |
| 31 min. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 39 |
| 31 min. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 39 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 2 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 100 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 5 |
| 36 min. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 1,299 |
| 38 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 51 |
| 42 min. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 2 |
| 43 min. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 60 |
| 44 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 30 |
| 47 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 30 |
| 50 min. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 53 min. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 467 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 20 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 30 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 9 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 577 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 390 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 158 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 169 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 1 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 44 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 23 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 23 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 112 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 600 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 15 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 8 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 475 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 100 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 6 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 301 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 50 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 250 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 18 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 8 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 8 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang is officially announced as accepting or beginning a formal role within the corporate or governance structure of SpaceX by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, SpaceX includes Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SpaceXAI (formerly xAI), and any of SpaceX’s subsidiaries or controlled entities. Qualifying roles include employment, executive, officer, director, formal advisory, or governance positions at SpaceX, including membership in a body formally responsible for governing or overseeing the company. A role within a subsidiary or controlled entity of SpaceX will also qualify. Merely investing in SpaceX (including investments by NVIDIA), entering into a commercial or research partnership, informally advising, or working for an independent organization that collaborates with or provides services to SpaceX will not qualify unless Jensen Huang also accepts or begins a formal role within the company’s corporate or governance structure. An official announcement that Jensen Huang has accepted a qualifying role will be sufficient, regardless of when he formally begins serving in that role. The primary resolution source will be official information from SpaceX, the relevant governance body, Elon Musk, or Jensen Huang; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?
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