Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? — odds by date
Cumulative probability across 5 deadlines · $343.2K traded · updated 57 min. ago
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Each row is a cumulative probability: the chance of reaching that point or beyond. The second bar is the market's implied chance of landing in that step alone.
ThresholdChanceIn this step24hVolume7d
Frequently asked questions
- What do these cumulative odds mean?
- Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
- What is the second bar?
- It is the difference between one step and the next — the market's implied chance of landing in that band specifically, rather than anywhere at or beyond it.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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