Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...? odds
Live implied probabilities across 14 outcomes · $117.7K traded · updated 57 min. ago
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
October 20 leads at 32 % · biggest 24h move: October 22 +12.0 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1October 2032 %▲ +2.4%$17.2K
- 2October 2221 %▲ +12.0%$13.8K
- 3No release by October 3116 %▼ −4.7%$41.5K
- 4October 2711 %▲ +5.5%$7.2K
- 5October 218 %▲ +0.4%$6.7K
- 6October 244 %▼ −2.0%$3.5K
- 7October 234 %▼ −5.2%$4.2K
- 8October 193 %▲ +1.8%$7K
- 9October 262 %▼ −0.4%$4.1K
- 10October 281 %—$3.7K
- 11October 251 %—$905.239
- 12October 301 %—$327.232
Show all 14 outcomesShow fewer
Market Guy's AI runs research on these markets daily — sign up to see where it disagrees.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...??
- October 20 is the current favourite at 32 %, ahead of 13 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
Related events
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Google71 %19 outcomes$2.9MLargest Company end of October 2026?NVIDIA84 %9 outcomes$587.3KWhich company has the best AI model end of November?Google48 %21 outcomes$328.1KAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap$1.75–$2.0T26 %10 outcomes$1.9MLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?SpaceX64 %12 outcomes$6.6MWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?Anthropic49 %15 outcomes$2.6M
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.