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Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government? odds

Live implied probabilities across 19 outcomes · $25K traded · updated 3 days ago

Resolves Oct 28, 2026

Gadi Eizenkot leads at 63 % · biggest 24h move: Naftali Bennett −16.6 pp

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Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government??
Gadi Eizenkot is the current favourite at 63 %, ahead of 18 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
What do these odds actually mean?
Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
How often do these odds update?
Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
How to read the odds

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