Fed Decision in October? odds
Live implied probabilities across 5 outcomes · $47.5M traded · updated 1 hr. ago
Resolves Oct 29, 2026
No change leads at 89 % · biggest 24h move: No change +2.0 pp
Market Guy's AI has analysed 2 of 5 outcomes — 0 disagree with the market.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Fed Decision in October??
- No change is the current favourite at 89 %, ahead of 4 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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