Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Oct 5, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%2Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%3Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%4Will zekken play for MIBR in 2027?86¢▲ +77.5%5

Will Sale Sharks win?100¢▲ +75.4%6

FMP vs. KK Crvena Zvezda85¢▲ +74.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseMarket 8%AI 68%-60 pp gap Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Market 14%AI 59%-44 pp gap US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Market 72%AI 38%+34 pp gap

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Market 79%AI 58%+21 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Helium HNT$0.5725▲ +13.7%Starknet STRK$0.0593▲ +12.2%Cardano ADA$0.2672▲ +10.1%Pudgy Penguins PENGU$0.00989957▲ +8.3%Axie Infinity AXS$1.31▼ −5.6%The Graph GRT$0.0299▲ +5.5%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?40¢

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?10¢

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?24¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House67¢

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