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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

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2 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.2%1W
Yes 2¢No 98¢

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

7 outcomes
See all 7 outcomes

Total volume

$42.9K

24h vol.

$30

1w vol.

$2.9K

1m vol.

$14.8K

Liquidity

$16K

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 3¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

2¢

Start date

Feb 6, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 137 resolved Polymarket Tech markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 2.2% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
2¢$2,797
2¢$156
2¢$180
2¢$192
2¢$205
1¢$417
1¢$455
1¢$500
1¢$556
1¢$20
Asks (sell)Size
3¢$11
3¢$382
3¢$606
4¢$154
4¢$5,276
4¢$42
4¢$41
4¢$40
4¢$40
5¢$176

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 52%Sells 48%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoSell2¢2,921
2 wk. agoBuy2¢2,921
2 wk. agoSell2¢4,558
2 wk. agoBuy2¢4,558
2 wk. agoSell1¢129
2 wk. agoBuy1¢114
2 wk. agoBuy1¢15
2 wk. agoBuy1¢150
2 wk. agoSell1¢65
2 wk. agoSell1¢85
2 wk. agoBuy1¢132
2 wk. agoSell1¢132
2 wk. agoBuy1¢100
2 wk. agoSell1¢9
2 wk. agoSell1¢91
3 wk. agoBuy99¢40
3 wk. agoBuy1¢40
3 wk. agoBuy99¢8
3 wk. agoBuy1¢8
3 wk. agoBuy99¢100
3 wk. agoBuy1¢100
3 wk. agoBuy99¢5
3 wk. agoBuy1¢5
3 wk. agoBuy1¢102
3 wk. agoSell1¢2
3 wk. agoSell1¢100
3 wk. agoBuy99¢24
3 wk. agoBuy1¢24
3 wk. agoSell1¢399
3 wk. agoBuy1¢399
3 wk. agoBuy100¢55
3 wk. agoBuy1¢55
3 wk. agoBuy100¢29
3 wk. agoBuy1¢29
3 wk. agoBuy100¢20
3 wk. agoBuy1¢20
3 wk. agoBuy100¢52
3 wk. agoBuy1¢52
3 wk. agoSell1¢0
3 wk. agoBuy1¢0
3 wk. agoBuy1¢399
3 wk. agoSell1¢127
3 wk. agoSell1¢117
3 wk. agoSell1¢155
3 wk. agoBuy100¢6
3 wk. agoBuy0¢6
4 wk. agoBuy100¢29
4 wk. agoBuy0¢29
4 wk. agoBuy100¢25
4 wk. agoBuy0¢25

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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