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Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

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6 %

chance

▼ −0.4%1h▼ −0.3%24h▲ +2.7%1W
Yes 6¢No 94¢

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

7 outcomes
See all 7 outcomes

Total volume

$85.9K

24h vol.

$4.4K

1w vol.

$24.3K

1m vol.

$46.4K

Liquidity

$21.8K

Bid / Ask

6¢ / 7¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

6¢

Start date

Feb 6, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,182 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.7% resolved YES. That is 4.0 points more often than their average price of 9.7% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
6¢$35
6¢$100
6¢$1,300
6¢$401
5¢$420
5¢$100
5¢$248
5¢$38
5¢$39
5¢$479
Asks (sell)Size
7¢$1,000
7¢$200
7¢$320
8¢$101
8¢$105
8¢$5,090
8¢$111
8¢$464
9¢$11
9¢$11

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 50%Sells 50%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 hr. agoSell93¢854
2 hr. agoBuy92¢394
2 hr. agoBuy92¢220
2 hr. agoSell7¢101
2 hr. agoSell6¢116
2 hr. agoSell6¢22
3 hr. agoBuy6¢1,000
3 hr. agoSell6¢1,000
4 hr. agoBuy6¢56
4 hr. agoSell6¢44
4 hr. agoSell6¢12
6 hr. agoSell5¢0
6 hr. agoBuy5¢0
6 hr. agoBuy5¢157
6 hr. agoSell5¢157
8 hr. agoSell5¢0
8 hr. agoBuy5¢0
8 hr. agoBuy5¢49
8 hr. agoSell5¢28
8 hr. agoSell5¢20
22 hr. agoSell5¢200
22 hr. agoBuy5¢100
22 hr. agoBuy5¢100
22 hr. agoBuy5¢130
22 hr. agoSell5¢130
22 hr. agoSell93¢22
22 hr. agoSell7¢22
22 hr. agoSell6¢1,147
22 hr. agoBuy6¢157
22 hr. agoBuy6¢33
22 hr. agoBuy6¢160
22 hr. agoBuy6¢600
22 hr. agoBuy6¢32
22 hr. agoBuy6¢22
22 hr. agoBuy6¢101
22 hr. agoBuy6¢20
22 hr. agoSell94¢21
22 hr. agoBuy95¢602
22 hr. agoBuy5¢10
22 hr. agoBuy5¢36
22 hr. agoSell95¢488
22 hr. agoBuy5¢35
22 hr. agoBuy5¢34
22 hr. agoBuy95¢163
22 hr. agoBuy5¢163
1 day agoBuy7¢21
1 day agoBuy93¢21
1 day agoBuy8¢18
1 day agoSell8¢18
1 day agoSell6¢0

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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