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Updated 8 min. ago
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
16 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 9.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 32% on Oct 27, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 20 buys, 30 sells; the largest was $34.6K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 23% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (164 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
2 outcomes- June 30, 202754 %
- December 3116 %
Total volume
$1.2M
24h vol.
$81.4K
1w vol.
$125.7K
1m vol.
$276.3K
Liquidity
$91.3K
Bid / Ask
15¢ / 16¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
15¢
Start date
Feb 17, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 164 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 23.2% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 min. ago | Buy | 16¢ | 100 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 12 |
| 2 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 5 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 50 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 154 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 37 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 2,900 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 207 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 57 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 96 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 57 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 868 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 5 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 1,000 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 2 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 107 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 92 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 11 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 575 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 509 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 56 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 23 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 18¢ | 100 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 17¢ | 302 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 17¢ | 108 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 95 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 100 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 90 |
| 5 hr. ago | Buy | 19¢ | 10 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 491 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 100 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 18¢ | 125 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 21¢ | 43,729 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 6 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 290 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 206 |
| 5 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 2,010 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 139 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 988 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 100 |
| 8 hr. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 275 |
| 10 hr. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 251 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 21¢ | 21 |
| 11 hr. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 21 |
| 12 hr. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 0 |
| 12 hr. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 660 |
| 12 hr. ago | Sell | 22¢ | 2,000 |
| 12 hr. ago | Sell | 20¢ | 1,140 |
| 12 hr. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 34 |
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