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Updated 6 days ago

Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
3 %
chance
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
16 outcomesTotal volume
$270.8K
24h vol.
$6.9K
1w vol.
$32.5K
1m vol.
$257.7K
Liquidity
$111.4K
Bid / Ask
2¢ / 3¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
3¢
Start date
Jun 26, 2026
End date
Mar 31, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 2,621 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 98¢ | 173 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 98¢ | 1,400 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 360 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 553 |
| 6 days ago | Sell | 97¢ | 37 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 38 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 20 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 40 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 8 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 97¢ | 8 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 5¢ | 21 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 11 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 10 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 12,681 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 7¢ | 170 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 400 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 700 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 718 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 61 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 93¢ | 679 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 600 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 89 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 538 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 43 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 94¢ | 63 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 9 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 28 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 127 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 50 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 66 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 9 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 89 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 95¢ | 80 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 400 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 12 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 9 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 9 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 9 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 4¢ | 500 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 600 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 248 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 4¢ | 70 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 200 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 242 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 100 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 91 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 2,100 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 750 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Smart money is a Pro+ feature
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
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