Updated 2 mo. ago

Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
13 %
chance
Market brief
- Last 50 trades: 13 buys, 37 sells; the largest was $601 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
10 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$39K
24h vol.
$164.4
Liquidity
$11K
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$215.203
1m vol.
$329.623
Bid / Ask
12¢ / 14¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
12¢
Start date
Jul 13, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 98 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 98 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 17 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 64 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 64 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 159 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 99 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 86¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 98 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 2 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 691 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 31 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 200 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 10 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 300 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 25 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 25 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 425 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 425 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 150 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 145 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 88¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 67 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 67 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 30 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 50 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 50 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
- Event:
- Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
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