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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

PoliticsGeopoliticsTechWorld

12 %

chance

▼ −0.5%24h▼ −2.0%1W
Yes 12¢No 88¢

Market brief

  • Large trades ($5K+) were 20% buys, smaller ones 56% — larger money is leaning further toward NO.
  • Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

10 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$99K

24h vol.

$1.124

Liquidity

$12.2K

End date

Jul 1, 2027

ends in 8 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$6.004

1m vol.

$39.098

Bid / Ask

11¢ / 13¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Jul 13, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
17¢$151
16¢$317
15¢$20
14¢$100
13¢$86
12¢$541
11¢$1,128
10¢$50
9¢$401
8¢$1,049
Asks (sell)Size
19¢$322
20¢$20
21¢$20
22¢$20
23¢$200
24¢$135
33¢$1,090
35¢$397
41¢$60
42¢$5

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 29%Sells 71%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell82¢1
1 mo. agoSell18¢1
1 mo. agoBuy84¢3
1 mo. agoBuy16¢3
1 mo. agoSell83¢9,700
1 mo. agoSell17¢9,700
1 mo. agoSell83¢8,900
1 mo. agoSell17¢8,900
1 mo. agoSell83¢900
1 mo. agoSell17¢900
1 mo. agoSell83¢8,300
1 mo. agoSell17¢8,300
1 mo. agoSell82¢9,200
1 mo. agoSell18¢9,200
2 mo. agoSell17¢20
2 mo. agoBuy17¢20
2 mo. agoSell16¢40
2 mo. agoBuy16¢40
2 mo. agoSell16¢20
2 mo. agoBuy16¢20
2 mo. agoSell17¢36
2 mo. agoSell83¢21
2 mo. agoSell83¢15
2 mo. agoSell83¢0
2 mo. agoSell16¢14
2 mo. agoBuy16¢14
2 mo. agoBuy78¢1,808
2 mo. agoSell79¢1,063
2 mo. agoBuy22¢20
2 mo. agoBuy22¢50
2 mo. agoBuy22¢356
2 mo. agoBuy22¢20
2 mo. agoBuy23¢20
2 mo. agoBuy23¢20
2 mo. agoBuy24¢20
2 mo. agoBuy24¢159
2 mo. agoBuy24¢20
2 mo. agoBuy24¢20
2 mo. agoBuy24¢20
2 mo. agoBuy24¢20
2 mo. agoBuy83¢20
2 mo. agoSell83¢20
2 mo. agoBuy82¢21
2 mo. agoSell83¢1
2 mo. agoSell82¢20
2 mo. agoBuy75¢4
2 mo. agoBuy25¢4
2 mo. agoBuy27¢9,800
2 mo. agoBuy73¢9,800
2 mo. agoBuy27¢8,300
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).

Event:
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

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