← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 34 min. ago
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?
33 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 9.5 pp over the past week (−17.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 70% on Oct 22, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 17 buys, 33 sells; the largest was $8.24K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 22% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (156 cases).
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Dec 31, 2026).
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Total volume
$72.8K
24h vol.
$49.1K
1w vol.
$53.4K
1m vol.
$60K
Liquidity
$25.9K
Bid / Ask
31¢ / 34¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
33¢
Start date
Aug 7, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 156 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 21.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 10 |
| 2 hr. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 20 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 32¢ | 250 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 31¢ | 150 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 32¢ | 192 |
| 3 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 258 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 720 |
| 3 hr. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 3 |
| 4 hr. ago | Buy | 34¢ | 12 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 195 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 5 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 50 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 33¢ | 52 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 459 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 50 |
| 4 hr. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 15 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 7 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 41¢ | 105 |
| 7 hr. ago | Sell | 42¢ | 30 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 39¢ | 6 |
| 7 hr. ago | Buy | 39¢ | 65 |
| 9 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 8 |
| 10 hr. ago | Sell | 35¢ | 8 |
| 11 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 5 |
| 11 hr. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 141 |
| 13 hr. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 8 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 3 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 34¢ | 5 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 36¢ | 171 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 3,212 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 9,964 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 13,083 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 11,294 |
| 14 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 288 |
| 16 hr. ago | Sell | 37¢ | 4,000 |
| 18 hr. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 4,000 |
| 20 hr. ago | Sell | 38¢ | 195 |
| 23 hr. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 68 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 55¢ | 25 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 56¢ | 40 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 73¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 72¢ | 14 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 60¢ | 138 |
| 1 day ago | Buy | 56¢ | 27 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 39¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 38¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 40¢ | 240 |
| 1 day ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
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