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Updated 2 mo. ago

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2026?

TechCulture

2 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▼ −0.5%24h▼ −1.7%1W
Yes 2¢No 98¢

Market brief

  • At 2%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
  • Last 50 trades: 27 buys, 23 sells; the largest was $172 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 3% of Polymarket Tech markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (164 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

✦ AI assessment

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Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

3 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$9.5K

24h vol.

$301.13

Liquidity

$5.7K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1m vol.

$954.96

Bid / Ask

0¢ / 4¢

Spread 3¢

Last trade

0¢

Start date

Sep 9, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
7¢$227
6¢$1,093
5¢$2,698
4¢$4,061
3¢$339
2¢$259
1¢$537
Asks (sell)Size
8¢$880
9¢$1,163
10¢$2,763
11¢$1,410
12¢$100
14¢$100
15¢$200
17¢$951
18¢$676
19¢$1,270

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 46%Sells 54%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 mo. agoSell92¢20
2 mo. agoBuy92¢20
2 mo. agoSell92¢100
2 mo. agoBuy92¢14
2 mo. agoBuy92¢86
2 mo. agoSell92¢29
2 mo. agoBuy92¢14
2 mo. agoBuy92¢16
2 mo. agoSell93¢30
2 mo. agoBuy93¢12
2 mo. agoBuy93¢9
2 mo. agoBuy93¢9
2 mo. agoBuy95¢6
2 mo. agoSell95¢5
2 mo. agoSell94¢1
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢6
2 mo. agoSell94¢6
2 mo. agoBuy94¢5
2 mo. agoSell94¢5
2 mo. agoBuy94¢1
2 mo. agoSell94¢1
2 mo. agoSell6¢25
2 mo. agoSell94¢25
2 mo. agoSell6¢259
2 mo. agoSell94¢183
2 mo. agoBuy7¢51
2 mo. agoBuy7¢25
2 mo. agoSell92¢40
2 mo. agoBuy92¢40
2 mo. agoBuy93¢40
2 mo. agoBuy7¢40
2 mo. agoSell7¢19
2 mo. agoBuy7¢19
2 mo. agoSell92¢44
2 mo. agoBuy92¢44
2 mo. agoBuy8¢200
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Event:
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Resolution source:
https://www.claymath.org

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