Updated 2 mo. ago

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?
11 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 28.5 pp over the past week (+5.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 50% on Sep 14, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 29 buys, 21 sells; the largest was $120 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 12% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (1,777 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 yr. (Jan 1, 2029).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
3 outcomes- December 31, 202811 %
- December 31, 20277 %
- December 31, 20262 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$12.2K
24h vol.
$2.1K
Liquidity
$6.3K
End date
Jan 1, 2029
ends in 2 yr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$7.4K
1m vol.
$8.1K
Bid / Ask
10¢ / 12¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
13¢
Start date
Sep 9, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 42 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 21 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 1 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 31¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 40 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 59¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 42¢ | 38 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 22 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 60¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 43¢ | 63 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 58¢ | 23 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 42¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 25 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 5 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 218 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 58 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 80 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 55¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 55¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 15 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 0 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 218 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 100 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 58 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 20 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 49¢ | 5 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
- Event:
- Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
- Resolution source:
- https://www.claymath.org
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