Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

Market brief

• Up 5.0 pp over the past week (+4.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 38% on Oct 28, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 33 buys, 17 sells; the largest was $14.7K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 14% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (1,370 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Jan 1, 2028).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,370 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.5% resolved YES. That is 3.9 points more often than their average price of 9.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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