Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Market brief

• Up 12.0 pp over the past week (+5.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 64% on Oct 29, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 31 buys, 19 sells; the largest was $1.61K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 30% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before the end resolved YES (3,840 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 2 yr. (Jan 1, 2029).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 3,840 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 29.9% resolved YES. That is 4.3 points more often than their average price of 25.6% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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