← Dashboard · Crypto
Updated 3 wk. ago

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?
35 %
chance
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
15 outcomesTotal volume
$19.9K
24h vol.
$1.6K
1w vol.
$11.5K
1m vol.
$19.9K
Liquidity
$15.4K
Bid / Ask
34¢ / 36¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
43¢
Start date
Sep 25, 2026
End date
Nov 1, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 183 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 50.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.7%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 6¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 69¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 31¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 31¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 69¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 1 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 3 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 3 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 3 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 3 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 61 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 32¢ | 41 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 27¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 41 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 41 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 30¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 29¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 71¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 65¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 30 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 58¢ | 51 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 58¢ | 51 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 41¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 49 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 59¢ | 51 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 25 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 44¢ | 5 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 56¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 52¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 52¢ | 20 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 43¢ | 274 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 144 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 57¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Crypto markets from other events.