Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?

Market brief

• Up 57.5 pp over the past week (+70.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 25% on Oct 28, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 40 buys, 10 sells; the largest was $459 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 98% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before the end resolved YES (1,263 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 2 days (Nov 1, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,263 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before resolution, 98.2% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.7%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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