← Dashboard · Politics
Updated 34 min. ago

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Politics
1 %
chance
▼ −14.9%1h▼ −72.4%24h▼ −78.4%1W
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Market brief
- Down 78.4 pp over the past week (−72.4 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 80% on Oct 18, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 20 buys, 30 sells; the largest was $535 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Scheduled to end in 4 hr. (Oct 26, 2026).
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
uses 1 credit
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
2 outcomes- Lula33 %
- Flavio Bolsonaro1 %
Total volume
$644.9K
24h vol.
$73.3K
1w vol.
$550.6K
1m vol.
$645K
Liquidity
$17.9K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 2¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 5, 2026
End date
Oct 26, 2026
ends in 4 hr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Bids (buy)Size
13¢$6
12¢$147
11¢$554
10¢$100
9¢$100
8¢$110
7¢$369
6¢$200
5¢$301
4¢$506
Asks (sell)Size
16¢$12
17¢$35
20¢$30
21¢$18
22¢$16
23¢$61
24¢$130
26¢$61
27¢$175
29¢$183
Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
Buys 19%Sells 81%
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 min. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 12 |
| 37 min. ago | Sell | 16¢ | 30 |
| 40 min. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 7 |
| 40 min. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 13 |
| 40 min. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 2 |
| 41 min. ago | Buy | 26¢ | 124 |
| 44 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 32 |
| 44 min. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 43 |
| 54 min. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 43 |
| 57 min. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 85 |
| 58 min. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 42 |
| 60 min. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 3 |
| 60 min. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 35 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 12 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 21 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 22 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 21 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 21 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 14¢ | 8 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 42 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 5 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 33 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 21 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 60 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 12 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 14¢ | 19 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 15 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 10¢ | 597 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 9¢ | 5 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 1 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 50 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 8 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 40 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 12 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 13¢ | 10 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 28 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 15¢ | 590 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 0 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 15 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 19¢ | 340 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 54 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 225 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 23¢ | 20 |
| 1 hr. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 1 |
| 1 hr. ago | Buy | 29¢ | 6 |
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6 %▼ −77.4%
- Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?0 %▼ −70.6%
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?95 %▲ +0.0%
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?80 %▼ −3.0%
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28 %▲ +0.0%
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?93 %▲ +1.0%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?93 %▲ +76.9%
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?83 %▲ +67.5%
- Denver vs Arizona: Spread — Denver wins by over 4.5 points97 %▲ +46.0%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?6 %▼ −39.5%