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Updated 19 min. ago

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Politics
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88 %

chance

▲ +32.5%1h▲ +73.5%24h▲ +69.5%1W
Yes 88¢No 12¢

Market brief

  • Up 69.5 pp over the past week (+73.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 14% on Oct 24, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 10 buys, 40 sells; the largest was $1.66K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Scheduled to end in 4 hr. (Oct 26, 2026).

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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

8 outcomes
See all 8 outcomes

Total volume

$1.1M

24h vol.

$454.9K

1w vol.

$898.4K

1m vol.

$1.2M

Liquidity

$48.6K

Bid / Ask

87¢ / 89¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

87¢

Start date

Oct 5, 2026

End date

Oct 26, 2026

ends in 4 hr.

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See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book and recent tradesDepth, spread and up to 50 recent trades

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
83¢$233
82¢$376
81¢$8,047
80¢$300
79¢$894
78¢$1,000
77¢$1,412
76¢$5,483
75¢$6,355
73¢$6
Asks (sell)Size
84¢$176
86¢$100
87¢$140
88¢$384
90¢$1,480
91¢$6,153
92¢$231
93¢$286
94¢$341
95¢$400

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 41%Sells 59%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
21 min. agoSell84¢30
21 min. agoSell84¢220
21 min. agoSell84¢50
21 min. agoSell84¢30
21 min. agoBuy84¢114
21 min. agoSell83¢134
21 min. agoSell83¢50
21 min. agoSell83¢18
22 min. agoSell83¢0
22 min. agoSell83¢73
22 min. agoSell83¢15
22 min. agoBuy84¢6
22 min. agoSell81¢5
22 min. agoSell81¢50
22 min. agoBuy83¢30
22 min. agoSell81¢182
22 min. agoSell82¢164
22 min. agoSell81¢100
22 min. agoSell82¢5
22 min. agoSell83¢50
22 min. agoSell83¢50
22 min. agoSell82¢826
22 min. agoSell83¢32
22 min. agoSell83¢284
22 min. agoSell83¢69
22 min. agoBuy84¢200
23 min. agoBuy84¢226
23 min. agoSell84¢179
23 min. agoSell82¢40
23 min. agoSell82¢1,619
23 min. agoSell82¢6
23 min. agoSell83¢36
24 min. agoSell83¢1,319
24 min. agoBuy87¢477
24 min. agoSell84¢176
24 min. agoBuy85¢1,442
24 min. agoBuy83¢50
24 min. agoBuy83¢2,000
24 min. agoSell82¢20
24 min. agoSell82¢164
25 min. agoSell82¢50
25 min. agoSell82¢122
25 min. agoSell82¢102
25 min. agoBuy82¢150
26 min. agoSell82¢50
26 min. agoSell81¢40
26 min. agoSell82¢60
26 min. agoSell82¢80
26 min. agoSell82¢150
26 min. agoSell82¢50

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