Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

Market brief

• Up 7.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after dipping to 6% on Oct 24, 2026.
• Historically, 10% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (239 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 3, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 239 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.

• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House8 %▲ +0.0%
• Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?54 %▼ −17.5%
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?96 %▲ +2.0%
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?100 %▲ +0.0%
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?28 %▲ +2.0%
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?90 %▲ +3.0%

Keep exploring