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Updated 8 hr. ago

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

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82 %

chance

▲ +1.5%24h▲ +17.5%1W
Yes 82¢No 18¢

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

6 outcomes
See all 6 outcomes

Total volume

$724K

24h vol.

$5.8K

1w vol.

$18.9K

1m vol.

$111.6K

Liquidity

$15.6K

Bid / Ask

81¢ / 83¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

81¢

Start date

Nov 12, 2025

End date

Mar 2, 2027

ends in 4 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
81¢$127
80¢$540
79¢$124
78¢$119
77¢$125
76¢$475
75¢$1,885
74¢$1,000
73¢$1,271
72¢$5,649
Asks (sell)Size
83¢$60
84¢$876
85¢$1,651
86¢$75
87¢$16
88¢$646
89¢$437
90¢$5
92¢$601
93¢$1,986

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 64%Sells 36%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
8 hr. agoSell81¢3
8 hr. agoBuy81¢3
16 hr. agoSell80¢1,819
16 hr. agoSell20¢99
16 hr. agoSell20¢5
16 hr. agoSell20¢5
16 hr. agoBuy80¢50
16 hr. agoBuy80¢1,660
16 hr. agoSell81¢2,000
16 hr. agoBuy80¢636
16 hr. agoBuy81¢500
16 hr. agoSell19¢844
16 hr. agoBuy81¢20
22 hr. agoBuy83¢657
22 hr. agoBuy16¢2
22 hr. agoBuy16¢250
22 hr. agoBuy17¢100
22 hr. agoBuy17¢300
22 hr. agoSell83¢5
22 hr. agoSell17¢10
22 hr. agoBuy17¢10
22 hr. agoBuy82¢770
22 hr. agoBuy18¢500
22 hr. agoBuy18¢270
23 hr. agoBuy81¢477
23 hr. agoBuy19¢331
23 hr. agoSell81¢5
23 hr. agoSell81¢5
23 hr. agoBuy19¢136
23 hr. agoBuy20¢10
23 hr. agoBuy80¢10
1 day agoBuy20¢9
1 day agoBuy80¢9
1 day agoBuy20¢25
1 day agoBuy80¢25
1 day agoBuy81¢4
1 day agoBuy19¢4
1 day agoBuy20¢160
1 day agoBuy80¢160
2 days agoBuy22¢565
2 days agoBuy78¢565
2 days agoBuy22¢14
2 days agoBuy78¢14
2 days agoBuy22¢5
2 days agoBuy78¢5
2 days agoBuy22¢9
2 days agoBuy78¢9
2 days agoBuy22¢70
2 days agoBuy78¢70
2 days agoBuy22¢60

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